Latent Capability Overhang

Noam Brown's claim that already-released models can do far more than anyone has extracted, because nobody spends enough test-time compute: OpenAI disproved the Erdős unit distance conjecture cheaply and the same result was later coaxed from GPT-5.5 with scaffolding ($1K–$100K); cost drops 10–100× per release, feeding the 'wait for the next model' meme; Cherny's product-side twin — 'hobbling' and 'product overhang' — locates the same gap in product design rather than budget