Matched Comparisons for Memorization Claims

Cooper et al. (arXiv 2607.12649): a generation rate measured only on training data is not a memorization rate — comparable non-training sequences must be scored by the identical procedure to supply a predictability floor. A conformal test calibrates the threshold to a chosen false-positive rate for populations, a census calibrates a single document against a matched control book, and 'extractable memorization' is redefined to require both a calibrated claim and near-certain generation within a realistic query budget.